Well, with the big three conferences here and gone, E3 this year may not be quite over yet, but in terms of announcements that tremble the hearts of nerds and leave jaws agape, I think it's safe to say Goodnight. The announcements that did come? Some amazing -- some not quite -- some veer towards the thin line that separates plain stupid from mental retardation. Regardless, predictions were made, so let's discover how well I can estimate the future of the games industry.

Nintendo -

1. Colored Wiis - Maybe not "colored" but a black Wii was announced for Japan. Whatever, I'm counting it.
2. New Super Mario Bros. 2 - I said that this could happen on the Wii. It might not be called a direct sequel, but even still, this is close enough to what I imagined. Actually, it's even better -- props Nintendo, props.
3. Downloadable Virtual Console for DSi - I don't understand why this is so hard for Nintendo to commit to. Not a mention at all of this, what could be a killer service.
4. Pikmin - It exists. Did Nintendo remind everyone of that? No.
5. No New Accessories - If I believed in God, I'd curse him at this point. Damn Vitality Sensor. I'll let my treadmill measure my pulse (If I had one), thank you very much.

Predicted Grade: C-
Actual Grade: C+ - Don't worry, I'm still not in love with the backwards direction Nintendo is heading in terms of many things I love, but a new Galaxy, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, and even Team Ninja's Metroid: Other M deserve some praise. The more I look into this Metroid they're making, the more I think it might not be bad.

Microsoft -

1. The Motion Camera - Project Natal, eh? It has potential to be unique and interesting. I don't ever see it lending itself to hardcore games, but I won't write it off before it is fully realized.
2. New Halo - Halo: Reach. I hit the nail on the head (the rumors helped). Still, I'd rather it be a third-person shooter in the Halo-verse. That needs to be done.
3. Metal Gear Solid - Victory!
4. XBLA Gets Serious & 5. "New Game" from... hmm, I'll say Epic Games - I got them both right, I just didn't know they'd be the same game. Shadow Complex looks great, and I'm always for another Metroidvania.
6. Special Extra Prediction - New game from Rare - Wrong.
7. Special Extra Prediction 2 - Project Offset - So wrong.

Predicted Grade: A-
Actual Grade: B - That was unexpected. Perhaps the mystery hype behind Microsoft's announcements actually hurt them here and resulted in a backlash. What they actually did reveal was in many places awesome, however in others it was actually tame and expected. Who didn't know Crackdown 2 was coming? Great conference, but not earth shattering.

Sony -

1. PSP Go! - It didn't really count that I knew this one -- but whatever, I'm a cheater. What I couldn't have guessed was the price-point. $250.00? Come on Sony, what the hell are you thinking?
2. Metal Gear Solid - I should have guessed two Metal Gear's for Sony. That would have been a little more impressive.
3. Price-Cut then PS3 Slim - I'm not sure how Sony plans to sell systems this fall without making either of these announcements. Rest assured, I'd bet a lot that they're both coming, although, who knows when?
4. Gran Turismo 5 - Maybe Gran Turismo PSP was the GT darling with a serious focus, but we did see Gran Turismo 5 on stage... and guess what? The cars? YOU CAN DAMAGE THEM! Way to go Polyphony! That only took you 10 years or so to deliver.
5. New Syphon Filter - This was an absolute guess on my part. Shows what I get for making absolute guesses.

Predicted Grade - B
Actual Grade - B - I think Sony's conference was actually right around the B range. With some serious announcements lacking -- particularly the ones that would help them get console sales, they otherwise performed well in terms of surprises and interesting game announcements. I, for one, will admit to being hyped by ModNation Racers. Then there's always that Final Fantasy XIV...

Third Party -

1. Valve - Half-Life Episode 3 - Wrong.
2. Capcom - Viewtiful Joe on Wii - Wrong-er.
3. Konami - WiiWare Castlevania - Wrong-est.
4. Square Enix - Kingdom Hearts Wii - Super Wrong.
5. Ubisoft - Prince of Persia - I'm not very good at this.

I think I'll leave third party guesses for someone else next year.

THE GRAND TALLY: 10 correct predictions out of 22

Nintendo Percentage Correct: 40%
Microsoft Percentage Correct: 71%
Sony Percentage Correct: 60%
Third Party Percentage Correct: 0%

That's that for the E3 crystal ball this year. Next post will be best of show awards.


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